Guidance, not guarantees

Projections are estimates

xPts is expected value. It is a model estimate of how many FPL points a player may average under the current assumptions. It is not a prediction that the player will score that exact number of points in the real gameweek.

Monte Carlo ranges are scenario estimates. They show a spread of possible outcomes under the model's assumptions, including quieter outcomes and higher-upside outcomes. They are not promises that a player will land inside a specific range.

Ranks, player comparisons, fixture colors, and range brackets should be read the same way. They are decision-support signals, not instructions to buy, sell, captain, bench, or ignore a player.

Football is noisy

The model can be wrong for normal football reasons: injuries, suspensions, illness, rotation, late team news, tactical changes, substitutions, red cards, penalties, missed penalties, goalkeeper save spikes, fixture changes, weather, game state, and ordinary variance.

It can also be wrong for data reasons. Inputs can be stale, delayed, incomplete, misread, manually reviewed under uncertainty, or affected by changes that happen after the site was last updated. A projection is only as current as the information behind it.

A good projection can still lose to a bad short-term outcome. A poor projection can still hit. That does not automatically prove the model was right or wrong in isolation, because FPL outcomes are a mix of expectation, role, minutes, match events, and luck.

Not betting, financial, or professional advice

KFT is an FPL decision-support project. Nothing on the site should be treated as betting advice, financial advice, or professional advice. The numbers are provided for fantasy football analysis and personal FPL decision-making.

Independent status

Kiba's FPL Treats is independent. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or officially connected to the Premier League, official Fantasy Premier League, clubs, players, broadcasters, or rights holders.

Fantasy Premier League, Premier League, club names, player names, marks, logos, and trademarks belong to their respective owners. Any references are used only to identify the football and fantasy football context being discussed.

Third-party data and links

KFT may use or link to public and third-party football data, official FPL public endpoints, newsletters, social platforms, and other external services. Those services can change, break, remove data, delay data, or show information that is incomplete or incorrect.

External links are provided for convenience or context. KFT does not control third-party websites, third-party privacy practices, or third-party terms.

How to use KFT properly

Use KFT as one input in your decision process. Compare the projections with your own read of team news, fixtures, eye test, risk tolerance, chip strategy, price changes, and squad structure. The site is strongest when it sharpens your thinking, not when it replaces it.

If you need a certain kind of decision, such as a high-upside chase, a safer captain, a one-week punt, or a long-term hold, read the numbers through that context rather than treating the top row of a table as the only answer.